Wall Street stopped the bleeding on Friday. The Dow jumped 0.93% to 51,829, the S&P 500 added 0.51% to 7,743 and the Nasdaq rose 0.48% to 27,069 as the 10-year yield eased one basis point to 5.17%. The VIX fell 5.1% to 14.87 and the dollar index softened 0.25% to 101.035, Rio Times reported.
Friday's calm capped a brutal week for bonds. The 10-year touched 5.2251% on Thursday, a 19-year high, leaving the Dow down 0.64% on the week through Thursday while the S&P held up 0.70% and the Nasdaq gained 1.57% on AI resilience, Vantage reported. Gold finished at $4,285, up 0.5% on the day.
Related reading: gold slides to $4,290 as yields and crude squeeze both sides; ringgit closes higher at 4.0743.
What ruled the week
Blistering US data did the damage. September PMIs printed 57.0 in manufacturing and 58.7 in services, John Williams said the Fed will likely hike again this year, a $70 billion 5-year auction drew weak demand, and oil swung wildly as Brent spiked to $108 on Houthi strikes before easing on Hormuz diplomacy hopes, Edward Jones reported. Oracle's 4% slide on a force majeure notice at its Project Jupiter data center added AI-infrastructure jitters.
The split screen mattered: cyclicals and rate-sensitive stocks wore the yield shock while megacap tech kept the Nasdaq green for the week. Breadth was narrow, but it held.
Earnings season is the next referee
With valuations compressed by yields, third-quarter earnings must do the heavy lifting. S&P 500 profits are on track for one of the strongest growth periods outside post-recession recoveries, up 36% on the year, and that earnings power is the bull case against 5% money. Banks kick off the season in two weeks, and their loan books will show whether higher rates are biting yet.
What it means for Monday in KL
Bursa reopens Monday with calmer global cues than it had all week. The local note closed at 4.0743 with a softer dollar behind it, and triple-digit crude keeps energy and plantation counters supported. Foreign funds sold into the yield spike all week, so any follow-through calm in Treasuries on Monday could pull them back to the buy side.
Next week
- US data deluge: PCE inflation, GDP and nonfarm payrolls decide the 71% October-hike odds
- Weekend risk: Trump rejected Iran's 7-day proposal overnight, Bloomberg reported, so oil could gap on Sunday open
- 7,743 watch: the S&P sits 0.7% below its record; a calm bond market puts new highs in play