The rejection stands, the answer hasn't arrived, and oil reopens in hours. Donald Trump has publicly refused Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran wants the deal only because it is "losing so badly." But on Sunday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had seen only reported remarks and was still waiting for the official US position through mediators, RFERL reported. Brent closed Friday at $104.37 and reopens Sunday evening US time.
The numbers dispute the narrative. Trump claims "total control" of the strait with "massive amounts of oil" moving and 29 ships crossing in a day. Shipping data tells a thinner story: a 10-day average of about 18 transits a day, dropping as low as nine vessels on some days, per Kpler data cited by BBC.
Related reading: Wall Street steadies as yields cool from 19-year high; gold holds $4,285 into Sunday.
What Tehran offered
The concrete proposal, presented on the UN sidelines: Iran reopens the waterway and resumes nuclear talks if Washington lifts its naval blockade, waives oil sanctions and observes a ceasefire covering Lebanon too, Independent reported. It follows the collapse of an earlier 14-point framework that fell apart after both sides resumed strikes, with Iran hitting unauthorised vessels and the US hitting Iranian sites and tankers.
Trump's counter-claim is economic: the blockade has cut off Tehran's income because Iran "wanted to close the strait, and we closed it on them." Saudi Arabia meanwhile urged UN members to defend freedom of navigation as a global energy security issue.
Russia wants the MoU back
Moscow has called for a return to the memorandum framework after the rejection, adding another mediator voice to the mix. With official US views still travelling through back channels, every intermediary statement now moves the needle for Monday's open.
Sunday open: three scenarios
Friday's 2% slide was priced on deal hope. That hope is now dented, which sets up the reopen: a gap higher if traders unwind the hope trade, a flat open if the 29-ships narrative convinces desks that flows are fine, or a spike if any strike headline lands before the bell. None of the three would surprise a market that has swung $4 intraday twice this month.
What it means for Malaysia
Triple-digit crude keeps subsidy pressure on RON95 and diesel, while Petronas-linked and energy counters on Bursa take their Monday cue straight from the reopen print. A higher open supports the ringgit's terms of trade but feeds pump-price anxiety; a calm one lets Friday's relief rally breathe.
What to watch
- The reopen print: first Brent ticks Sunday evening US time set Asia's Monday tone
- Official US paper: mediators' delivery of the definitive response ends the guessing
- Transit counts: Kpler's daily numbers vs the 29-ships claim
- Strike headlines: either side can reprice oil in one headline before morning