Copper is knocking on a record near $14,533 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange as the threat of US tariffs on refined metal collides with a supply crunch decades in the making. COMEX futures trade near $6.75 a pound, up about 47% from a year ago, HeyGoTrade reported.
The tariff leg came first. The US Commerce Department is running about two months late on a report that could extend tariffs to refined-metal imports, and traders have spent weeks front-running the decision. Supply is the second leg: Chile's copper shipments fell to their lowest in more than a year even as prices surged, putting miners such as Freeport-McMoRan back in focus.
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A 30-year hole miners cannot fill fast
The deeper story is structural. Average ore grades have fallen 40% since 1990, new mines take 16.3 years to reach production, and capital costs per tonne of new capacity have doubled to $15,000 to $20,000, Discovery Alert reported. No price signal can reverse constraints like those in a hurry.
The numbers show the squeeze arriving. The International Copper Study Group sees the refined market flipping from a 178,000-tonne surplus in 2025 to a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026. BloombergNEF warns of a 19-million-tonne shortfall by 2050 as energy-transition demand triples by 2045.
One loud bear sees 20% to 30% downside
Not everyone is buying the breakout. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned on September 18 that a broad market correction could hit metals hard and drag copper down 20% to 30%, MINING.COM reported. His case: record prices invite demand destruction just as recession risk rises.
It is the oldest tension in commodities. High prices cure high prices, but only after they first ration demand or pull forward supply that, in copper's case, cannot arrive for years.
What it means for Malaysian traders
The theme lands close to home. Johor's data-center boom, grid upgrades and EV assembly all run on copper wiring, so the metal's direction feeds straight into local construction and tech sentiment. CFD traders quote COMEX HG futures around the clock, with the record zone as the obvious line in the sand.
The currency adds a second trade. With the ringgit near 4.09 per dollar, every dollar move in copper costs Malaysian buyers more in local terms, which keeps physical premiums firm even when the LME pauses.
What to watch next
- The Commerce report: any tariff decision on refined metal reprices COMEX fast
- Chile export data: monthly shipments show whether supply is healing
- The $14,533 line: a weekly close above it opens uncharted ground
- China demand: grid and AI orders remain the swing buyer for the whole complex